Kobayashi Maru
People do not fully appreciate what we are witnessing in the markets right now. This week and last could very well be a historic landmark in the unfolding economic crisis. Last week, Ben Bernanke, faced with a raging inflation problem that can no longer be denied, came out and merely talked hawkish, indicating rate cuts were likely over. He took a gamble doing this, as the stock market was already weakening. It did not pay off. When the employment figures were released Friday, even these rigged figures showed that the US economy is shedding jobs at a rapid pace. The markets all were then gripped by extreme volatility. It appears as though the market players that are suddenly awakening to the reality of the Fed's untenable position is now spreading rapidly beyond those of us who are gold (and silver) bugs.
The Forex markets are hit with the reality that the Fed cannot raise rates to defend the dollar without bringing down the stock market and the multi-trillion dollar derivatives mess, thus the dollar sold off sharply. The stock market is beginning to grasp that the Fed cannot lower rates to help the rapidly deteriorating economy without sending the dollar into the tank and causing all commodities (and precious metals) to take their long awaited trip to the moon, cementing the dreaded increased "inflation expectations" in the public psyche. Yet doing nothing is not an option either. The inflation that is already in the pipeline will continue to increase, choking off an economy on life support. What then is the Fed to do?
What began last week is leading to a full realization and acceptance by the markets what we (Austrian gold bugs) have known for years - the Fed would eventually get itself into a position where it was in a no win situation. It’s the Kobayashi Maru.
For those of you who are younger than I, Wikipedia does a good job of describing what this is.
In Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, the simulation takes place on a replica of a starship bridge, with the "testee" as captain and other Starfleet members, officers or other cadets, in other key positions. In the scenario of the 2280s, the cadet receives a distress signal, stating that the Kobayashi has struck a "gravitic mine" in the Klingon Neutral Zone and is rapidly losing power, hull integrity and life support. There are no other vessels nearby. The cadet is faced with a decision:
• Attempt to rescue the Kobayashi's crew and passengers, which involves violating the Neutral Zone and potentially provoking the Klingons into hostile action or an all-out war; or
• Abandon the Kobayashi, potentially preventing war but leaving the crew and passengers to die.
If the cadet chooses to save the Kobayashi, the scenario progresses quickly. The bridge officers notify the cadet that they are in violation of the treaty, which is duly noted in the log. As the starship enters the Neutral Zone, the communications officer loses contact with the crippled vessel. Three Klingon starships then appear on an intercept course. Attempts to contact them are met with radio silence; indeed, their only response is to open fire, with devastating results. The simulation ends with the understanding that the cadet's ship and crew have been lost. There is no way to win the resulting 'battle'; but then, the objective of the test is not for the cadet to outfight the opponent, but rather to test the cadet's behavior and thought processes in the face of insurmountable odds or circumstances.
The no win situation. It is here and it is real. It isn't a simulation. And the markets are beginning to smell it. A rate hike by the Fed and the stock markets crash. A rate cut and the dollar crashes and commodities soar. Both would have equal, devastating consequences. So the test of character of the current Fed is on the line.
What most market participants do not realize is which direction the Fed will take. They have begun their hawkish talk, yet their recent actions have spoken loudly that inflation is not their main worry. This uncertainty (and the continued Fed speak obfuscation) will keep markets volatile for the immediate future. However, in the end, the Fed exists to protect the banks, so that is what they will do. Eventually they will ride to the banker’s rescue.
Thus the likely path the Fed will take will be to stand pat as long as possible, using their bully pulpit to try to strong arm the markets in the direction they wish them to go. They may even be so bold as to hike a quarter point. If they do, look for an emergency cut within just a month or two, as they begin to monetize debt across abroad spectrum of markets. At that point it will be lights out for the US dollar. The Klingons in the bond market and foreign central bankers will fire away, dumping their dollar denominated paper and sending the US dollar into a full blown crisis. What is different today is that the main market players are beginning to realize for the first time that this is not a simulation. They are living it. The panic in all markets that will ensue will make recent volatility pale in comparison. Some will crash, others will soar. There will be whip saws along with bull and bear traps galore.
For those of you saw the Star Trek movie, you know that Admiral James T. Kirk was the only one ever to beat the Kobayashi Maru. He did it by reprogramming the computer - he changed the rules. Look for a similar attempt by those now taking the test. Currency controls, restrictions on investing, limits on positions held in commodities, etc. etc. Sadly, it will all fail.
And why is all of this pain coming? Because the Fed will bail out the bankers. These corrupt and greedy men hijacked our Constitution and implemented a corrupt monetary system in order to exploit it for their own financial gain. This is moral failure of the highest degree. It is indeed “the crime of the century”.
What this means for the average US citizen is potentially quite dire. After the cosmic dust settles, commodity prices along with any “thing” that has tangible value will have soared to unimaginable heights in US dollar terms. The economy will likely be in the next depression, brought about by hyperinflation and a collapsed US dollar. We then enter a new period of testing - where “we the people” will be called upon to chose who we wish to lead the country as we recover. Our choice will have repercussions that will last for generations.
Will we have the moral foundation and courage to “root out the den of vipers”? The only other choice is more of the same failed leadership who will impose a new currency and a quasi-dictatorship right here in the good ole USA. And I don't think that is overstating the case. It's time to prepare to battle for our freedom like we have not had to since the first revolution. By God’s grace, the church will join Ron Paul in his Revolution and we will have the hope of a better future for our children and grandchildren.
Copyright © 2008 Doug Tjaden
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